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The Banks Rule The Kings

Couple of interesting items on on Greek crisis:

Bloomberg prints an exercise in extrapolating Greek devaluation to Mexico peso crisis. It is an interesting exercise in so far as it does indicate (imperfectly) one side of the ‘pain coin’ currently spinning in the air. But it does not provide for any realistic comparatives to the other side of the same coin: the side of Greece not opting out of the euro area. Suppose the estimated path in the Bloomberg chart is correct and Greece, exiting the euro does face a devaluation ‘bill’ of some 300 percent-odd. As Bloomberg article says, there will be pain. Huge pain. Now, suppose Greece does not opt for direct devaluation. Then what? Then – exactly the same adjustment will have to happen via internal devaluation. Absent inflation (of any significance) in the euro area (and even given the ECB target inflation), this means all of this adjustment will be carried by Greek people. Except, with devaluation and exit, Greece will still retain internal markets for adjustment: with reforms (not guaranteed by any means), and with some pain taken on the side of capital / funding, it might ameliorate the period of post-default devaluation (the ‘jump’ stage in the chart below). Staying in the euro clearly implies zero adjustment on capital side, with all adjustment on households’ side (employment, earnings, pensions etc). In addition, staying with euro implies no imports substitution (no price effects), exiting implies devaluation-driven imports substitution. Finally, staying with the euro implies no exports boost from devalued currency.

Source: Bloomberg

So the Bloomberg exercise is fine and interesting, but one-sided ad extremum.
Which rounds us to the latest news from the ECB. With Greeks requesting EUR6 billion increase in ELA and ECB rejecting it, Reuters reports a comment from a source on the situation:
“Commenting on the expected extension of existing emergency funding, one person said: “It doesn’t make sense to stop it now. The banks are not able to pay it back anyway. So if you froze it for another two or three days, it wouldn’t make any difference.”” Except, of course, it does make perfect sense: if the ECB were to extend ELA, there would not have been capital controls (note: I am not suggesting the ECB should have done so – that’s a different matter). However, without ECB support for ELA uplift, we have capital controls. Which sends a clear message from Frankfurt to Greek voters: this is what you will have to live with if you go against us. 
And this neatly dovetails with what Jean Claude Juncker said to the Greek voters earlier: “You should say ‘yes’ regardless of what the question is.” 

Because whether Reuters wants it or not, in Europe, what the bank does, the banks’ kings say.

Big Kids Don’t Want To Share In “Sharing Economy” Sandbox

Plenty of analysts, market-watchers, and thought leaders are excited about Uber, Airbnb, and the advent of the so-called “sharing economy.”

Here’s the thing: The sharing economy isn’t for everybody.

Why not? Because, as we learned in the sandbox, not everyone wants to share.

Although they are certainly part of the equation, the question is whether the real sharers and their financial backers are willing to back the notion of a vast array of industries whose regulatory landscape is just taking shape…

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Good On You, Alexis Tsipras (Part 1)

Late Friday night a solid blow was struck for sound money, free markets and limited government by a most unlikely force. Namely, the hard core statist and crypto-Marxist prime minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras. He has now set in motion a cascade of disruption that will shake the corrupt status quo to its very foundations. And just in the…

Here’s How The Supreme Court Rigged Healthcare Stocks

U.S. markets were relatively quiet last week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.4% to 17,946.68, the S&P 500 also slipping 0.4% to 2101.49 and the NASDAQ Composite shedding 0.7% to 5080.51.

The real action was in China, where the Shanghai Composite Index collapsed by 7.4% on Friday and neared a 20% drop which would constitute bear market territory. Chinese stocks saw their biggest two-week plunge since December 1996.

While the market Shanghai market is still up an extraordinary 70% since last November, China’s central bank ran to the rescue Saturday morning by cutting its benchmark lending rate to a record low and lowering reserve requirements for some lenders.

Farmers may have to return to their fields if Chinese authorities aren’t able to stop the obviously insane stock market bubble from bursting.

For us, Europe is the more dangerous place to be right now…

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About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.

Disclaimer: © 2015 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.

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