The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) confirmed it in a report issued April 9. It projects massive and growing deficits for the next 8 years. That’s stimulative for the economy but bad news for the stock market, which the Treasury just goosed to the tune of $114 billion. Here’s the story, and why it’s ultimately bearish.
Pro Trader Latest Reports for Subscribers
Market Update Pro
With Lots of Market Whatifs, Here’s What to Expect
by Lee Adler •
The 10-12 month cycle remains in a down phase with more downside potential ahead. Conversely, the 6 month cycle seems to be in a weak up phase. But bears need to be careful because the up phase could still come to life. With multiple crosscurrents at work, here’s what to look for.
Precious Metals Pro
Gold Positioned For Breakout
by Lee Adler •
Gold is positioned favorably for a breakout by late April, early May. But what if it doesn’t. Here’s what to look for either way.
Market Update Pro
Here’s What To Look For With Market At the Precipice
by Lee Adler •
On the long term chart, both the 3-4 year cycle momentum indicator and cycle oscillator are on the cusp of turning down. If and when they do, it would confirm a bear market. This report shows you that chart as well as daily charts and intermediate term time and price targets.
Precious Metals Pro
Gold’s Potentially Positive Setup Yields Slew of Mining Stock Picks
by Lee Adler •
Another attack on the top of the gold’s trading range looks likely, resulting in a number of similar setups in mining stocks.
Macro Liquidity Pro Trader
Fed Draining Operations Are Showing Up in the Market and It Will Get Worse
by Lee Adler •
The Fed is on course with its balance sheet shrinkage program that is designed to eventually “normalize” this size of its asset base at a tight reserve position. As expected, the effects are showing up in the markets. Here’s why it will get worse.
Market Update Pro
Daily Swing Trades List for Friday, April 6
by Lee Adler •
I have made no additions to the list for Friday. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month.
US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report
March Tax Collections Send A Mixed Message That Isn’t Bullish
by Lee Adler •
Withholding tax collections continued their decline in the month ended March 30, as employers adjusted their withholding to the new tax law. At the same time, excise tax collections are booming. Here’s why this is all bad news for the markets.
Market Update Pro
Here’s What To Look For As Market Tests Support
by Lee Adler •
The market remains in a sharply descending short term channel. We have gotten the expected bounce from the 2588 area, and it is being tested again here on Wednesday morning. Here’s what to expect. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month.
Market Update Pro
Daily Swing Trades List for Wednesday April, 4, 2018
by Lee Adler •
I have made no additions to the list for Wednesday. I’ll continue to ride out the current picks until they are closed. There are now just 4 shorts and no longs after one was stopped out on Tuesday with a 16% gain in 26 calendar days. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and…
Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader
Bonds Set To Rally- Here’s Why That is Very Bad News
by Lee Adler •
The charts suggest that bonds should rally here. But that will be bad news for stocks. Here’s why, along with a rundown of Treasury demand indicators and charts that tell the story.
Market Update Pro
Daily Swing Trades List for Tuesday
by Lee Adler •
I have made no additions to the list for Tuesday. I’ll continue to ride out the current picks until they are closed. That leaves us with just 5 shorts and no longs. March was a difficult month, but we came back strong in the last two weeks to end the month with a loss of 0.3% in closed trades. The…
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Must Read
The Three Stages of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Credit Scores)
by confoundedinterest17 •
Federal mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain in conservatorship with their regulator FHFA since September 6, 2008. Come September, this will represent ten years in conservatorship. With the excellent assistance from George Mason University finance majors Hakeem Azoor and Belle Matthews using Python, we have created the three stages of Fannie Mae and Freddie … Continue reading The Three Stages of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Credit Scores) →
Must Read
The War between Public Pensioners and Tax Donkeys Is Heating Up
by Charles Hugh Smith •
The migration is only beginning, but that’s only half the story.You know it’s serious when the newspaper of record finally reports it: A $76,000 Monthly Pension: Why States and Cities Are Short on Cash (New York Times).It’s a long a…
Must Read
Geopolitical Risk: Who Cares?..
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Geo-political risks, geo-shmalitical risks… who cares… not the markets…None of the geopolitical risks registered on S&P 500 companies reporting radar according to Factset in 1Q 2018 https://insight.factset.com/more-than-half-of-sp-500-co…
Must Read
30Y-10Y Treasury Slope Flattening Harder Than Other Treasury Curves (Inversion Alarm!)
by confoundedinterest17 •
Flatten hard!
The 30-year – 10-year yield curve slope is flattening faster than other Treasury curves. In fact, the 30Y-10Y slope is at 18.65 BPS and is rapidly approaching inversion as it has prior to previous recessions.
Yes, it is time for t…
Must Read
Treasury 10Y Yield Trying To Reach 3% (Freddie Mac 30Y Commitment Rate Up To 4.47%, Highest Since Dec ’13)
by confoundedinterest17 •
Only two months ago, the prospect of 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 percent was an almost certainty after a relentless climb from 2.4 percent at the start of the year.
Must Read
Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do
by Lee Adler •
There’s something very unique – and a bit sinister – about today, April 19.
Would you like to know what is fueling this stock market rally?
Since March 29, the Treasury has poured $114 billion of its cash hoard back into the market by paying down debt.
That windfall ends today… Thursday, April 19. From then on, Treasury supply will just keep building.
The post Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Must Read
Here’s Your Guide to The Bear Market – Whether You Like It Or Not
by Lee Adler •
Ever since I opined that the February downturn was actually the beginning of “the Big One,” or the next bear market, you’ve been firing back with opinions of your own.
Some of them have been right, some have been wrong in my opinion, but I’ve enjoyed reading all of them.
The post Here’s Your Guide to The Bear Market – Whether You Like It Or Not appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Must Read
Only 974 Fans Show Up For A Baseball Game In Chicago (Economic Slowdown? Too Cold? Too Expensive?)
by confoundedinterest17 •
On April 12, 2018, Forbes ran a story entitled “Only 974 Fans Show Up For A Baseball Game In Chicago. It Was Just As Bad Elsewhere.
Must Read
Treasury 10Y-2Y Slope Falls To 42 Basis Points (The Freddie King “Going Down” Curve)
by confoundedinterest17 •
With The Fed intent on raising the short end of the yield curve and not quite committed to raising the 10 year T-note yield (through a glacial unwind spreed), we have a yield curve slope that is going down.
Must Read
After a Volatile Week, the Price of Silver Is on Track for More Gains
by Peter Krauth •
After a wild ride last week, investors have an increasingly optimistic outlook for silver. And for good reason.
