…there are instances where the denial of any linkage between correlation and causation proves only that the deniers have their heads in the sand. That’s particularly true in the case of central banks and financial market direction.
In this regular Radio Free Wall Street podcast for subscribers, Russ Winter asks Lee Adler what he thinks the next Fed taper means for the market. He discusses the market outlook in that context. Russ describes the 7/8 of the…
In this regular Radio Free Wall Street podcast for subscribers, Russ Winter explains the Ukrainian crisis, and what it may mean for the markets. Lee Adler tells why he remains bullish. Subscribers may click here to download the complete podcast…
In this regular Radio Free Wall Street podcast for subscribers, Russ Winter and Lee Adler discuss gray state operations for disseminating propaganda while Lee adds his comments about central bank market interventions and what will cause the market’s likely directional…
In this regular Radio Free Wall Street podcast for subscribers, Russ Winter and Lee Adler discuss the surprising strength of stocks in February, what’s behind it, and what’s likely to lie ahead. It’s a scary picture. Subscribers may click here…
Menu found in Beijing, China.
CUSIP: 912810RE0Term and Type: 29-Year 11-Month BondReopening: YesOffering Amount: 13 BillionAnnouncement Date: 03/06/2014Auction Date: 03/13/2014Issue Date: 03/17/2014Maturity Date: 02/15/2044PDF | XML
CUSIP: 912828B66Term and Type: 9-Year 11-Month NoteReopening: YesOffering Amount: 21 BillionAnnouncement Date: 03/06/2014Auction Date: 03/12/2014Issue Date: 03/17/2014Maturity Date: 02/15/2024PDF | XML
President Obama’s 2015 budget proposes a number of tax increases that will mainly affect the rich.
despite the Russian-controlled natural gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea to northern Germany (Nord Stream) and across Belarus to Poland, most of the Russian natural gas coming to the continent still passes across Ukraine – about 80% in fact. And Europe is still reliant upon this energy flow despite attempts to diversify.
Why is our government so incompetent? Short answer: because incompetence has been fully institutionalized in every branch, every agency and every nook and cranny of the state.Though many may reckon the U.S. government (and its Deep State) are not so mu…
Monetary policy can be implemented through outright purchases or sales of securities, which permanently changes the size of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio.
The 2008 transcripts were released in late-February. Most media operations published stories about the Fed’s absent-minded professors who missed the importance of failing financial institutions during 2008. This was not news.
In trying to assess the trajectory of the US economy, one is struck by the recent divergence between the manufacturing and the services sectors. Manufacturing in the United States has picked up steam recently in spite of some weather-related headwinds (see chart). The service sector on the other hand took a turn for the worse, which is negatively impacting the labor markets in this service-oriented economy (see story). A couple of key indicators point to slower non-manufacturing activity:
1. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at the lowest level in years.
The detail behind the decline shows the big hit to employment in the service sector, which is what we see in the ADP private payrolls today.
2. The Markit PMI measure paints a similar picture.
Markit: – Adjusted for seasonal influences, the final Markit U.S. Services PMI™ Business Activity Index dipped sharply to 53.3 in February, from 56.7 in the previous month. Although the index was above the 50.0 no-change mark and signalled a solid pace of expansion, the latest reading was the lowest since October 2013 [US government shutdown]
Most analysts blame this weakness in the service sector and the resulting softness in the labor markets on the weather.
ISI: – There’s hardly a lamer excuse than weather, but that’s probably the case for ADP’s +139k for Feb. It presents downside risk to our best guess for payroll employment of +185k.
Markit: – With the exception of last October, when the government shutdown hit the economy, the service sector grew at its slowest rate since March of last year. This time, the extreme weather was to blame for the slowdown.
If that is indeed the case, as temperatures cimb, we should see a material rebound in service oriented businesses and therefore some big improvements in the jobs picture later this spring. That would mean more Fed taper and higher yields.
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