The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) confirmed it in a report issued April 9. It projects massive and growing deficits for the next 8 years. That’s stimulative for the economy but bad news for the stock market, which the Treasury just goosed to the tune of $114 billion. Here’s the story, and why it’s ultimately bearish.
The 10-12 month cycle remains in a down phase with more downside potential ahead. Conversely, the 6 month cycle seems to be in a weak up phase. But bears need to be careful because the up phase could still come to life. With multiple crosscurrents at work, here’s what to look for.
Gold is positioned favorably for a breakout by late April, early May. But what if it doesn’t. Here’s what to look for either way.
On the long term chart, both the 3-4 year cycle momentum indicator and cycle oscillator are on the cusp of turning down. If and when they do, it would confirm a bear market. This report shows you that chart as well as daily charts and intermediate term time and price targets.
Another attack on the top of the gold’s trading range looks likely, resulting in a number of similar setups in mining stocks.
The Fed is on course with its balance sheet shrinkage program that is designed to eventually “normalize” this size of its asset base at a tight reserve position. As expected, the effects are showing up in the markets. Here’s why it will get worse.
I have made no additions to the list for Friday. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month.
Withholding tax collections continued their decline in the month ended March 30, as employers adjusted their withholding to the new tax law. At the same time, excise tax collections are booming. Here’s why this is all bad news for the markets.
The market remains in a sharply descending short term channel. We have gotten the expected bounce from the 2588 area, and it is being tested again here on Wednesday morning. Here’s what to expect. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and updated stops, as well as performance metrics for this month.
I have made no additions to the list for Wednesday. I’ll continue to ride out the current picks until they are closed. There are now just 4 shorts and no longs after one was stopped out on Tuesday with a 16% gain in 26 calendar days. Here is today’s updated list including new buys, sells, short sales, cover shorts, and…
The charts suggest that bonds should rally here. But that will be bad news for stocks. Here’s why, along with a rundown of Treasury demand indicators and charts that tell the story.
I have made no additions to the list for Tuesday. I’ll continue to ride out the current picks until they are closed. That leaves us with just 5 shorts and no longs. March was a difficult month, but we came back strong in the last two weeks to end the month with a loss of 0.3% in closed trades. The…
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Federal mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain in conservatorship with their regulator FHFA since September 6, 2008. Come September, this will represent ten years in conservatorship. With the excellent assistance from George Mason University finance majors Hakeem Azoor and Belle Matthews using Python, we have created the three stages of Fannie Mae and Freddie … Continue reading The Three Stages of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Credit Scores) →
The migration is only beginning, but that’s only half the story.You know it’s serious when the newspaper of record finally reports it: A $76,000 Monthly Pension: Why States and Cities Are Short on Cash (New York Times).It’s a long a…
Geo-political risks, geo-shmalitical risks… who cares… not the markets…None of the geopolitical risks registered on S&P 500 companies reporting radar according to Factset in 1Q 2018 https://insight.factset.com/more-than-half-of-sp-500-co…
The 30-year – 10-year yield curve slope is flattening faster than other Treasury curves. In fact, the 30Y-10Y slope is at 18.65 BPS and is rapidly approaching inversion as it has prior to previous recessions.
Yes, it is time for t…
Only two months ago, the prospect of 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3 percent was an almost certainty after a relentless climb from 2.4 percent at the start of the year.
There’s something very unique – and a bit sinister – about today, April 19.
Would you like to know what is fueling this stock market rally?
Since March 29, the Treasury has poured $114 billion of its cash hoard back into the market by paying down debt.
That windfall ends today… Thursday, April 19. From then on, Treasury supply will just keep building.
The post Your Treasury-Fueled Windfall Ends Today – Here’s What to Do appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Ever since I opined that the February downturn was actually the beginning of “the Big One,” or the next bear market, you’ve been firing back with opinions of your own.
Some of them have been right, some have been wrong in my opinion, but I’ve enjoyed reading all of them.
I promised you last weekend that I’d have another Q&A issue for you soon. So without further ado, here are some of the most provocative bear-focused comments I’ve gotten lately – and my sometimes snarky answers.
The post Here’s Your Guide to The Bear Market – Whether You Like It Or Not appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
On April 12, 2018, Forbes ran a story entitled “Only 974 Fans Show Up For A Baseball Game In Chicago. It Was Just As Bad Elsewhere.
With The Fed intent on raising the short end of the yield curve and not quite committed to raising the 10 year T-note yield (through a glacial unwind spreed), we have a yield curve slope that is going down.
After a wild ride last week, investors have an increasingly optimistic outlook for silver. And for good reason.