Sign In »
Register Now!
Help
The latest signal from Iran may be more than a black swan event than the cognoscenti realize. That’s because the issue isn’t just about sanctions. The real reason is to signal Israel about the consequences of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Sky News has reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to rally support in his cabinet for an attack on Iran, according to government sources. “The country’s defence minister Ehud Barak and the foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman are said to be among those backing a pre-emptive strike to neutralise Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Currently a narrow majority of ministers opposes the move, but that may be changing.
If Israel attacks 18% of global oil goes that goes through Straights of Hormuz is cut off. It would be much easier for Iran to close the Straits than many people realize. There would be no need for them to risk warships. They could initiate the action with high speed, low flying aircraft laying naval mines in the main channel. It’s old technology.
The Strait is only 34 miles wide and is transited daily by 15 or more supertankers called VLCCs. Due to their size and draft, VLCCs are largely restricted to the shipping lane in the center. Naval mines deployed there would immediately stop all commercial traffic. No ship owner or insurance carrier would think of sending a VLCC into an area known to be mined. The financial risk would be completely unacceptable. The mere presence of the mines would suffice.
To simply escort the vessels would not solve the problem. Our navy would then have to find and neutralize the mines either by deactivation or pre-detonation and very possibly under fire. The fire could come from shore based anti-ship missiles or from small explosive laden speed boats on “Kamikaze” missions. If this sounds extreme, remember the USS Cole.
Iran’s ability to reek havoc, at least for a time, in the Strait is considerable. From the Iranian website MEMRI is a rundown of weaponry that Iran has developed for this very purpose.
View the full article
