[Russ Winter]

Israel’s window is narrowing as Iran’s nuke facilities go underground.   In fact none other than Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in this Reuters article believes Israel will strike in the April-June timeframe.  WSJ Pentagon war planners have concluded that their largest conventional bomb isn’t yet capable of destroying Iran’s most heavily fortified underground facilities.   We are in peak window and its now or never on sanctions working and they seem instead to make Iran more strident.  The Strait of  Hormuz is just bristling with armaments.  Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have about 2,000 naval mines in its arsenal, though it would only take 300 of them to disrupt tanker traffic through the strait.   All of the booming cities in the region, from Doha to Dubai, lie within range of Iranian short- and mid-range missiles. At its narrowest point, the strait is only 54 kilometers (34 miles) wide. US experts assume that, in the case of war, Iran would utilize a “hybrid strategy” of guerilla hit-and-run tactics and ultra-modern weapons.



The US Navy now has three aircraft carrier group in the Persian Gulf.  The Revolutionary Guards has a flotilla of armed speedboats and submarine bunkers. All this increases the chances of an  incident that could spark a new Gulf war.

Mohammad Ismail Kowsari stated this week that the strait  “would definitely be closed if the sale of Iranian oil is violated in any way.  Iran itself is deeply dependent on oil; approximately 80% of foreign revenue is derived from oil exports so any disruption to this could shatter Iran’s already fragile economy. Iranians have seen their wages fall by 50% since December 2010 thanks to the currency falls.

The embargo imposed by the EU will affect a fifth of Iran’s oil exports. “Should separate US sanctions succeed (in coercing) Japan and South Korea to stop their imports from Iran, Tehran will literally be paralyzed,” analyst Joseph Kechichian wrote in an op-ed piece published last Thursday in the Dubai-based English daily Gulf News. In that case, he adds, India and China would be “in a position to demand sharp discounts” for oil, thereby obligating Iran “to dump its remaining oil production at discount prices.”

That would hit Iran hard. In retaliation, Iran’s parliament announced last week its intensions to immediately halt all oil deliveries to EU member states. Although other oil-supplying countries have already announced they will help should the threat materialize, the boycott would particularly have negative effects on Italy and Greece.







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