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Baltic dry index fell 10.9% last week and has reaching all-time low; Capesize Index was down 2.0%; Panamax Index fell 15.0%; Supramax Index was down 12.5%; Handysize Index fell 10.3%.
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Dry Bulk Shipping Hits All Time Low
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#2
qqqbear 
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Posted 06 February 2012 - 11:00 AM
Basil Karatzas, the chief executive of Karatzas Marine Advisors, a ship brokerage and finance advisory firm in Manhattan, estimated that European banks hold about $500 billion in shipping loans on their books and face nearly $100 billion in losses to restructure them.
Just as American banks have grappled with huge loan losses for houses that are worth less than their mortgages, European banks face tens of billions of dollars in potential losses on shipping loans
The banks’ “biggest concern is what is the write-off, and how do you treat it from an accounting point of view,” Mr. Karatzas said. “They do not know how to deal with these losses.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46149000
Just as American banks have grappled with huge loan losses for houses that are worth less than their mortgages, European banks face tens of billions of dollars in potential losses on shipping loans
The banks’ “biggest concern is what is the write-off, and how do you treat it from an accounting point of view,” Mr. Karatzas said. “They do not know how to deal with these losses.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46149000
#6
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Posted 09 February 2012 - 03:25 PM
Back in my better days, one observed a close correlation between the CRB commodities index and the BDI. This in recent years has changed and I'd thought the decoupling due to two possible suspects - IB and hedge fund speculation wagging commodity prices violently and a surplus capacity of new shipping coming online - but not being in any position other than remote observer, I can't really assert any facts.
Here's a new possible suspect:
Is world trade collapsing? MarketOracle seems to believe it is. "Increases in the supply of global shipping capacity are not large enough to explain such a substantial plunge in BDI within one month. BDI collapse is also closely coupled to simultaneous decline in global demand. " Jan 30, 2012
http://www.marketora...ticle32877.html
Yesterday RIO announced their half-yearly. Rio Tinto chief executive officer Tom Albanese commented Rio Tinto was on track to expand its iron ore output in Western Australia's Pilbara region by more than 50 per cent by mid-2015. Spot iron ore prices last year traded 15 per cent above 2010 levels but ended the year 25 per cent below where they started after price weakness in the fourth quarter, driven by Chinese de-stocking.
Chinese de-stocking? Ears in fingers. "la la la la la" and keep building more capacity. Well, money's cheap these days ...
OT but where's the discussion here these days? The forum doesn't have much value if it's just posting links and tickers of beats by a penny, misses by a penny
Here's a new possible suspect:
Is world trade collapsing? MarketOracle seems to believe it is. "Increases in the supply of global shipping capacity are not large enough to explain such a substantial plunge in BDI within one month. BDI collapse is also closely coupled to simultaneous decline in global demand. " Jan 30, 2012
http://www.marketora...ticle32877.html
Yesterday RIO announced their half-yearly. Rio Tinto chief executive officer Tom Albanese commented Rio Tinto was on track to expand its iron ore output in Western Australia's Pilbara region by more than 50 per cent by mid-2015. Spot iron ore prices last year traded 15 per cent above 2010 levels but ended the year 25 per cent below where they started after price weakness in the fourth quarter, driven by Chinese de-stocking.
Chinese de-stocking? Ears in fingers. "la la la la la" and keep building more capacity. Well, money's cheap these days ...
OT but where's the discussion here these days? The forum doesn't have much value if it's just posting links and tickers of beats by a penny, misses by a penny
#8
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Posted 10 February 2012 - 02:28 PM
I saw those Shooter. On the face of it the headline sounded positive: China's monthly trade balance jumping year on year unexpectedly from USD16.5B to 27.3B. Inside, however, exports contracted 0.5% while imports contracted 15.3% (down 10.8% expected). This year the lunar new year fell in January whereas last year it was Feb so it will take some months for this calendar anomaly to allow us to determine whether it's a dead canary or an archaeopteryx in de-stocking.
Baltic Dry is a measure of bulk shipping costs - like grains, coal, iron ore, so in China's case it relates to imports and not exports (container shipping mostly).
CHINA
It's odd how paradoxical economic statistics may sometimes appear. In an economy where GDP is driven by consumption, an improving balance of trade can mean rising unemployment and exhausted consumers ...
Baltic Dry is a measure of bulk shipping costs - like grains, coal, iron ore, so in China's case it relates to imports and not exports (container shipping mostly).
CHINA
It's odd how paradoxical economic statistics may sometimes appear. In an economy where GDP is driven by consumption, an improving balance of trade can mean rising unemployment and exhausted consumers ...
#9
qqqbear
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Posted 14 February 2012 - 09:12 AM
Container Rates Rising 28% as Cargo to U.S. Rebounds From Decline: Freight
By Isaac Arnsdorf and Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Feb 13, 2012 7:01 PM ET .
Container rates on the world’s biggest international trade route are rallying after U.S. imports of manufactured goods rebounded from the first decline in two years.
U.S. container imports gained 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, compared with a drop of the same amount in the previous three months, data from Newark, New Jersey-based PIERS show. Volumes from northern Europe and the Mediterranean rose 12 percent. Rates to carry 40-foot boxes to the West Coast from China rose 29 percent since Dec. 16, according to Clarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker.
Shipping lines will make money again this year after “deep losses” at the end of 2011, said Jon Windham, an analyst at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong. Investors should buy shares of A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S and Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., according to Morgan Stanley, which expects charter rates to more than double this year. U.S. cargo volumes will rise as much as 3.5 percent to a five-year high in 2012, UBM Global Trade predicts.
http://www.bloomberg...ne-freight.html
By Isaac Arnsdorf and Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Feb 13, 2012 7:01 PM ET .
Container rates on the world’s biggest international trade route are rallying after U.S. imports of manufactured goods rebounded from the first decline in two years.
U.S. container imports gained 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, compared with a drop of the same amount in the previous three months, data from Newark, New Jersey-based PIERS show. Volumes from northern Europe and the Mediterranean rose 12 percent. Rates to carry 40-foot boxes to the West Coast from China rose 29 percent since Dec. 16, according to Clarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker.
Shipping lines will make money again this year after “deep losses” at the end of 2011, said Jon Windham, an analyst at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong. Investors should buy shares of A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S and Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., according to Morgan Stanley, which expects charter rates to more than double this year. U.S. cargo volumes will rise as much as 3.5 percent to a five-year high in 2012, UBM Global Trade predicts.
http://www.bloomberg...ne-freight.html
#11
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Posted 11 March 2012 - 02:47 PM
well, BDI has shown a very slight m/m rebound as it did last year endJan-Feb, but its yoy fall is greater than a month ago.
And terrible February trade figures for China came out Saturday, which gained little attention amid all the Greek default news. No post new lunar year rebound, quite the contrary. One of the few detailed stories was on ZH which included this chart
which illustrates vividly the impact of surpluses/deficits on world trade. China's trade with "rest of the world" is basically energy suppliers has swung from surplus to deficit as oil prices and vehicle numbers rise far more rapidly than the energy suppliers' demand for China's exports
http://www.zerohedge...t-dollars-solel
World trade in my view is clearly dependent on the ability of consumer nations' deficits. Rising interest imposts, austerity and slower economic activity are all acting to strongly crimp world trade.
And terrible February trade figures for China came out Saturday, which gained little attention amid all the Greek default news. No post new lunar year rebound, quite the contrary. One of the few detailed stories was on ZH which included this chart
which illustrates vividly the impact of surpluses/deficits on world trade. China's trade with "rest of the world" is basically energy suppliers has swung from surplus to deficit as oil prices and vehicle numbers rise far more rapidly than the energy suppliers' demand for China's exports
http://www.zerohedge...t-dollars-solel
World trade in my view is clearly dependent on the ability of consumer nations' deficits. Rising interest imposts, austerity and slower economic activity are all acting to strongly crimp world trade.
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