[Lee Adler]

Gasoline deliveries reflect recession and growth. The recent drop in retail gasoline deliveries is signalling a sharp contraction ahead.

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[artv1]

I originally posted this chart several days ago, and then posted sort of a retraction and a different chart afterwards. The problem with this chart is that it does not measure true gasoline usage in the U.S. Look at the volume on the left side of the chart. We use 370-380 mil. gallons of gasoline daily in this country. This chart doesn't come close to representing that. I did put in an e-mail to eia for an explanation of this chart and was told that the most recent plunge might be accounted for by some of the U.S. majors closing or shuffling assets. In particular, ExxonMobil is still closing and selling retail stations. They did a big deal last year with a Canadian company. Does the Canadian company, now the owner of those gas stations participate in the eia's census? I don't know, but its possible that they are not, or that there is a delay in them reporting retail volumes. This chart also does not include intrafirm transfers and gasoline retained for the suppliers own use. I'm not sure what that means. Does Valero, for instance, not report the volumes that get sent to its retail stations (many of which were acquired from EOM)?
I also looked at production, which is still quite high tho off its best levels; exports, which have increased somewhat; and total finished product supplied (gasoline) which has weakened dramatically in the past few weeks, but still only brings us back to the levels of 2001-2002.

[artv1]

[artv1]

To my mind, the most compelling argument for economic weakness--as it relates to gasoline usage--is that we have had an extraordinarily mild winter in most of the U.S., meaning that any contractors that have work would, for the most part, have no problem getting out there and doing it. We also have not had snowy "stay at home" kind of road conditions to contend with. If anything, I would expect to see an increase in gasoline usage due to the mild weather. Obviously that ain't happening.

[Slipnslide]

Electricity usage is declining as well, and the utilities claim to have no good explanation for that, especially in light of an increasing population.

[Lee Adler]

Interesting point. The index measures real output. It looks like a stall since the 2009-10 rebound. December even worse, down 4% since last December.

[Lee Adler]

But was it the weather?

[d0n1wag]

1) Less People driving to work.
2) Less total households reducing rips for groceries etc.
3) Obummers cash for clunkers ...better gas milage vehicles.
4) Less vacations due to lw wages.

[HYPERTlGER]

People are cutting back...