1 reply to this topic

[Russ Winter]

In the consumer economy, gasoline demand has strangely collapsed. I have always felt this was a solid indicator of consumer behavior, and still do.  At a core level I sense that in reality the consumer is MIA.  As you can see the normal seasonal pickup in driving  is barely registering. At the same time and combination of refining problems, high input cots,  and speculation has drive gasoline prices to the highest levels this time of year ever. This does not look like a good recipe for meaningful consumer spending, and the window for an Iranian shock is fast approaching.

Per the Conference Board survey the consumer view of the job market can only be called shockingly dire.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less positive. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 6.1 percent from 6.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 43.5 percent from 41.6 percent.

View the full article

[qqqbear]

Payroll Tax-Cut May Be Offset by Rising Gas Prices
CNBC – 36 minutes ago.. .

The latest inflation data shows rising gasoline prices could start pinching consumers and steal away any savings from the just-approved extension of the payroll tax cut.

For now, the higher costs could be somewhat offset by lower winter heating bills. Those heating bill savings will fade however, as spring driving season begins. And by then, experts say gasoline could be over $4 a gallon.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent Friday, but underlying the tame number was a 0.9 percent gain in gasoline prices.

http://finance.yahoo...-180218502.html