1 reply to this topic

[Slipnslide]

Commercial leasing surging in Raleigh-Durham. This is according to some folks active in the market. I don't have a clue about the reason, but a fact is a fact. I think this is mostly due to large multi-national tech and pharma, not local "bidness" activity.

I have a guess which is this. This area is relatively healthy with UNC and Duke (along with their medical centers), NC State, State Government, and some local stalwarts like SAS, Cree, IBM, Quintiles, etc.  So when there's a downpoint in the cycle, every location loses jobs. Then, when there's an uptick, the failed locations with horrible fundamentals like Fla., Nevada, So. Cal. don't get their share of the jobs back. Instead, the winners get all the jobs and the losers get closed out. So even a small macro uptick can bring big benefits to the winning areas because all the gains are consolidated into the winning areas.

Granted, not the greatest explanation in the world, but it might help explain why commercial demand is surging when local economic conditions seem pretty stagnant.

[qqqbear]

Before he even ws sworn in
----------------------------------------
December 29, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
Fifty Herbert Hoovers
By PAUL KRUGMAN

No modern American president would repeat the fiscal mistake of 1932, in which the federal government tried to balance its budget in the face of a severe recession. The Obama administration will put deficit concerns on hold while it fights the economic crisis.

But even as Washington tries to rescue the economy, the nation will be reeling from the actions of 50 Herbert Hoovers — state governors who are slashing spending in a time of recession, often at the expense both of their most vulnerable constituents and of the nation’s economic future.

These state-level cutbacks range from small acts of cruelty to giant acts of panic — from cuts in South Carolina’s juvenile justice program, which will force young offenders out of group homes and into prison, to the decision by a committee that manages California state spending to halt all construction outlays for six months.

Now, state governors aren’t stupid (not all of them, anyway). They’re cutting back because they have to — because they’re caught in a fiscal trap. But let’s step back for a moment and contemplate just how crazy it is, from a national point of view, to be cutting public services and public investment right now.

Think about it: is America — not state governments, but the nation as a whole — less able to afford help to troubled teens, medical care for families, or repairs to decaying roads and bridges than it was one or two years ago? Of course not. Our capacity hasn’t been diminished; our workers haven’t lost their skills; our technological know-how is intact. Why can’t we keep doing good things?

It’s true that the economy is currently shrinking. But that’s the result of a slump in private spending. It makes no sense to add to the problem by cutting public spending, too.

In fact, the true cost of government programs, especially public investment, is much lower now than in more prosperous times. When the economy is booming, public investment competes with the private sector for scarce resources — for skilled construction workers, for capital. But right now many of the workers employed on infrastructure projects would otherwise be unemployed, and the money borrowed to pay for these projects would otherwise sit idle.

And shredding the social safety net at a moment when many more Americans need help isn’t just cruel. It adds to the sense of insecurity that is one important factor driving the economy down.

http://www.nytimes.c...agewanted=print